Reliable Evapotranspiration Predictions with a Probabilistic Machine Learning Framework

نویسندگان

چکیده

Evapotranspiration is often expressed in terms of reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), actual (ETa), or surface water evaporation (Esw), and their reliable predictions are critical for groundwater, irrigation, aquatic ecosystem management semi-arid regions. We demonstrated that a newly developed probabilistic machine learning (ML) model, using hybridized “boosting” framework, can simultaneously predict the daily ETo, Esw, & ETa from local hydroclimate data with high accuracy. The approach exhibited great potential to overcome uncertainties, which 100% 89.9% 93% test at three watersheds were within models’ 95% prediction intervals. modeling results revealed hybrid boosting framework be used as computational tool ETo while bypassing net solar radiation calculations, estimate Esw overcoming uncertainties associated pan coefficients, offsetting capital operational costs EC towers. In addition, Shapley analysis built on coalition game theory, we identified order importance interactions between hydroclimatic variables enhance transparency trustworthiness.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Water

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2073-4441']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040557